Game Theory #1: The Dating Game

SUMMARY

Professor Jiang delivers a lecture to Beijing high school students on game theory, exploring human motivations through theories like religion and biology, then applies it to the "dating game" to explain societal behaviors and potential collapse.

STATEMENTS

Societies behave based on underlying motivations that drive human actions, with various theories attempting to explain why people do what they do.
Religion posits human behavior as a battle between good and evil, with divine forces like God and Satan influencing choices toward goodness.
Biology views human existence as centered on reproduction, where passing on genes is the ultimate goal.
Men, biologically, seek to maximize reproduction by mating with as many partners as possible due to low investment required after conception.
Women face high reproductive costs, including nine months of pregnancy, painful childbirth, and 16-18 years of child-rearing, making them selective in partners.
Racial and cultural theories frame human behavior as a struggle for dominance among groups, each with distinct traits like cleverness or bravery.
Economics explains behavior through self-interest and the pursuit of wealth and money.
Liberalism from the Enlightenment sees history as progressive toward rationality, truth, justice, and eventual paradise.
Game theory offers a superior framework for understanding human, societal, and national behaviors by analyzing players, rules, and incentives.
A game consists of three elements: players (participants), rules (constraints or boundaries), and incentives (rewards for winning).
Mastering game theory allows prediction of outcomes by identifying players, rules, and incentives in any situation.
Learning game theory improves personal character, making individuals more thoughtful, analytical, curious, moral, and imaginative.
Game theory helps comprehend global events, such as conflicts in Ukraine, Israel-Iran, or U.S.-China relations, by revealing underlying dynamics.
Predictive power from game theory provides control over one's destiny and foresight into personal and world developments.
In the dating game example, 10 individuals (five men, five women) are ranked by attractiveness based on genes, wealth, and status.
Evolutionary psychology suggests women should all seek top-ranked men for procreation, but this leads to societal collapse if unchecked.
Rational cooperation in dating yields Nash equilibrium, where each pairs with their rank equivalent, maximizing outcomes for all.
Real-world dating deviates from Nash equilibrium, with women pursuing high-status men and lower-ranked men becoming incels, leading to low fertility.
Status, not reproduction, drives modern dating incentives, as people seek partners to boost social prestige via photos or bragging.
Societal superstructure—demographics, economics, culture—shapes the rules and incentives of games like dating over time.
In low-population, poor societies, communal sex disguises paternity to ensure child protection by the village.
Growing populations with competition use arranged marriages to maximize births for societal survival.
Overpopulated, wealthy modern societies foster dating games focused on status, resulting in declining fertility rates.
Governments fail to reverse low fertility with incentives like money, as status is zero-sum and more compelling.
Historical collapses, like Rome's, stem from wealthy, educated women refusing children, signaling societal endgame.
Fertility rates above 2.1 indicate growing societies; below signals collapse, with immigration as a temporary fix.
Israel's above-replacement fertility in a high-tech, wealthy context gives it a demographic edge despite challenges.
Materialism and loss of religion in the West prioritize superficial status over family or patriotism, exacerbating fertility crises.

IDEAS

Human behavior theories range from spiritual battles to genetic imperatives, but game theory uniquely dissects interactions via structured analysis.
Men's reproductive strategy biologically favors quantity, while women's demands quality, creating inherent tensions in mating games.
Cultural stereotypes of races as clever-weak or brave-stupid illustrate flawed but influential lenses on group motivations.
Enlightenment liberalism envisions inexorable progress to utopia, yet real-world deviations highlight its optimistic bias.
Nash equilibrium in dating reveals how uncooperative maximization leads to suboptimal outcomes for all players.
Real-life dating ignores rational pairing, with top men hoarding attention and bottom men withdrawing, mirroring incel phenomena.
Status as the true incentive in modern romance transforms procreation into a social media spectacle rather than biological necessity.
Societal superstructures evolve from scarcity-driven communal bonds to abundance-fueled individualism, altering mating rules.
Disguised paternity in primitive societies ensured collective child-rearing, preventing genetic favoritism from fracturing groups.
Arranged marriages in competitive eras prioritized population growth over personal choice, sustaining empires through sheer numbers.
Dating emerges in overpopulated wealth as a status lottery, where marrying up offers rare escapes from class stasis.
Fertility incentives fail because status is finite, unlike money, turning reproduction into a perceived sacrifice without payoff.
Historical empires crumbled when elite women opted out of childbearing, a pattern repeating in contemporary global powers.
Israel's fertility success ties patriotism and religion to reproduction, inverting Western materialism's anti-family bias.
Oil wealth in Saudi Arabia artificially boosts births via welfare, but lacks innovation for long-term sustainability.
Demographic projections show aging crises turning societies into "zombie" states, where retirees outnumber workers catastrophically.

INSIGHTS

Game theory transcends traditional motivations by modeling interactions as strategic games, revealing why rational actors pursue seemingly irrational paths.
Biological asymmetries in reproduction create perpetual imbalances, but societal rules can enforce equilibria to prevent collapse.
Status hierarchies dominate modern incentives, subordinating biological drives to social validation, which erodes long-term human continuity.
Superstructures dictate game forms: scarcity breeds cooperation for survival, abundance fosters competition for prestige.
Nash equilibrium demonstrates that individual greed yields collective ruin, underscoring the need for enforced cooperation in vital systems.
Declining fertility signals civilizational maturity's end, as empowered women prioritize personal advancement over demographic renewal.
Religion and external threats can realign incentives toward reproduction, making survival a communal virtue rather than individual burden.
Materialism's focus on infinite wealth ignores status's zero-sum nature, dooming affluent societies to self-imposed depopulation.
Immigration masks fertility failures temporarily, but cultural frictions arise as natives resent demographic shifts.
Innovation and openness, as in Israel, amplify demographic advantages by converting population into productive power.
Historical patterns show no escape from civilization's lifecycle: birth through expansion to inevitable decline via elite detachment.
Predictive game analysis forecasts dominance for societies where high-status women still value family, regardless of size or location.

QUOTES

"The point of education is to make you into a better person which means that you are a much more thoughtful person who can better analyze yourself in the world around you."
"If you learn game theory, there'll be three major benefits to you as a student: you become a better person, you'll be able to understand the world, and you'll have predictive powers."
"In real life no one actually follows this rule... What happens in real life is we choose to be suicidal."
"They're not interested in sex or procreation. What they're interested in is status... I want to marry someone so I can take a picture of her and post it on Instagram so I can get a lot of likes."
"The best indicator that a society is about to collapse is if the women who are wealthy and well educated refuse to have children."
"If you want to know who will rule the world in 100 years time, just figure out in which society do wealthy educated women choose to have children and then that society will rule the world."
"Fertility is status... If you are a woman and you give birth to a lot of kids, that means that you love Israel. That means that you are doing what you can in this war for survival."

HABITS

Follow daily news for five minutes to analyze current events through game theory lenses.
Participate actively in class discussions to refine critical thinking and predictive skills.
Rank personal decisions by players, rules, and incentives to make more thoughtful choices.
Prioritize curiosity and moral reflection in education over mere grades or job prospects.
Observe societal superstructures like demographics and economics to anticipate behavioral shifts.
Invest time in lifelong learning of game theory, applying it to personal destiny control.
Avoid superficial status pursuits by focusing on cooperative equilibria in relationships.

FACTS

China's fertility rate has dropped to about 1.0, below the 2.1 replacement level needed for population stability.
South Korea's fertility rate is the world's lowest at 0.6-0.8, projecting societal collapse by 2040-2050.
Israel's fertility rate exceeds 2.1 in a high-wealth, high-tech context, unique among developed nations.
Historical empires like Rome collapsed partly due to elite women's refusal to bear children.
Saudi Arabia sustains higher fertility through oil-funded welfare, providing free education, healthcare, and jobs.
Global fertility above 2.1 persists mainly in sub-Saharan Africa due to high mortality and competition.
By 2100, South Korea could have a majority over-65 population, creating an unworkable dependency ratio.

REFERENCES

Religion (as a theory of good vs. evil).
Biology and evolutionary psychology.
Race and culture theories.
Economics and self-interest.
Liberalism from the Enlightenment.
Game theory (general framework).
Nash equilibrium (from John Nash's work).
Donald Trump and U.S. military actions in Venezuela.
War in Ukraine.
Israel-Iran conflict.
China-Japan tensions.
U.S.-China relations.
Elon Musk and Brad Pitt (as examples of high-status figures).
Netflix, porn, and video games (incel activities).
Instagram (for status signaling).
Roman Empire (historical collapse).

HOW TO APPLY

Identify players in any social scenario, such as dating or politics, by listing all participants and their stakes.
Map out rules or constraints, including cultural norms or legal boundaries, to understand permissible actions.
Analyze incentives, distinguishing biological drives from modern status pursuits, to predict motivations.
Evaluate for Nash equilibrium by checking if individual strategies maximize collective outcomes without defection.
Assess superstructure factors like population density and wealth inequality to contextualize the game's evolution.
Use insights to forecast outcomes, applying to personal life for better decision-making or global events for preparation.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

Game theory reveals how status-driven dating games signal societal collapse through plummeting fertility rates.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Embrace game theory to dissect personal and global motivations, fostering smarter life choices.
Follow news critically to apply players-rules-incentives framework to real-world conflicts.
Prioritize cooperative strategies in relationships to achieve Nash-like equilibria over greedy pursuits.
Recognize status as zero-sum and seek fulfillment beyond it, like family or community ties.
Governments should integrate religious or patriotic incentives to boost fertility, avoiding futile monetary bribes.
Individuals in low-fertility societies: focus resources on fewer children for quality over quantity.
Study historical superstructures to anticipate civilizational shifts and adapt early.
Promote innovation and openness to convert demographic strengths into sustained power.
Avoid materialism's trap by valuing long-term societal contributions over short-term prestige.
In overpopulated contexts, encourage marrying within social ranks to stabilize demographics.

MEMO

In a lively lecture to his Beijing high school students on January 6, 2026, Professor Jiang unveiled game theory as the ultimate lens for decoding human behavior, eclipsing outdated paradigms like religious morality or biological imperatives. Dismissing simplistic views—such as life's core as a good-evil duel or endless gene propagation—he argued that societies thrive or falter through strategic interactions. Drawing from economics, race theories, and Enlightenment optimism, Jiang positioned game theory's triad of players, rules, and incentives as the key to predicting outcomes, from personal romances to geopolitical upheavals.

To illustrate, Jiang plunged into the "dating game," ranking five men and five women by genes, wealth, and status. Biology, he explained, urges women toward top mates for superior offspring, yet unchecked pursuit would doom society to imbalance. Rationality demands Nash equilibrium: each pairs with their counterpart, ensuring stability. But reality defies this; women chase elite men like billionaires or actors, leaving others as "incels"—involuntary celibates lost to Netflix and despair. Incentives, Jiang revealed, have warped: not procreation, but Instagram likes and envious glances fuel the frenzy, rendering humanity "suicidal."

This dysfunction stems from evolving superstructures—societal backdrops of demographics, wealth, and threats. In ancient low-population villages, communal sex masked paternity, binding men to nurture all children amid high mortality. Competitive growth eras enforced arranged marriages for mass reproduction, building empires. Today's overpopulated, affluent world breeds the dating lottery, where status-hungry individuals "marry up," slashing fertility. China's rate hovers at 1.0, South Korea's at a dire 0.6-0.8; incentives like cash subsidies fail, as zero-sum prestige trumps infinite money.

History echoes this peril: Rome fell when elite women shunned motherhood, a harbinger now haunting the West, Europe, and East Asia. Immigration props up aging populations temporarily, but cultural clashes loom. Yet outliers persist—Israel's fertility tops 2.1, blending high-tech wealth with patriotic duty amid existential threats. There, birthing many signals love for nation, fortified by religion against materialism's hollow idols of followers and fortune. Saudi Arabia's oil welfare mimics this, but lacks Israel's innovative dynamism.

Projections paint grim futures: South Korea as a "zombie" elder state by 2100, workforce halved, defenseless against rivals like North Korea. China shrinks to 600 million by century's end, its billion buffered only by inertia. Jiang urged students to wield game theory for foresight—dissect superstructures to trace origins and chart trajectories. Who rules in 100 years? Societies where educated women embrace children, turning demographic vitality into dominion.

Ultimately, Jiang's lesson transcends dating: civilizations cycle from birth to boom to bust, inescapable without realigning incentives. By questioning players and stakes, one gains sovereignty over destiny, navigating a "screwed up" world with clarity and control. As fertility falters globally, the professor's framework demands urgent reflection on what games we're truly playing.